Jessie Buckley Frontrunner For Hamnet

As the awards season ramps up, Best Actress looks like one of the most stacked categories at the Oscars 2026, making it even trickier to predict. But after Mikey Madison’s win last year, I’m happy to once again track this race and see how it unfolds, giving you ScreenRant‘s predictions for the category.

A year after the back-and-forth battle between Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance), figuring out who the frontrunner is for Best Actress in 2026 may vary on the week. There’s a great wealth of extraordinary performances for the Academy to reward, including former winners, nominees, and those hoping for their first nomination.

Curiously, the category is currently mostly made up of movies that the public has not seen. The best movies of 2025 so far have not brought many certifiable Best Actress Oscar contenders. Luckily, the festival circuit has assured everyone that stellar ones are on the way, with too many for the Academy to recognize them all.

This will make the coming months all the more exciting for awards season. New contenders will emerge on a nearly weekly basis from now through January 22, 2026, when nominations are announced. Here’s how I see it right now, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Best Actress Nomination Frontrunners

With a bit more uncertainty surrounding this race right now, we really have to lean on early reactions, a film’s overall Oscars potential, and history to help inform our decision. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actress nominations prediction (in alphabetical order):

Predicting a nomination for Cynthia Erivo feels safe after she secured one for Wicked last year. Even without having seen the sequel, there’s no reason to think she won’t give a considerably great performance.

The darker and more emotional story for Elphaba might make Erivo’s performance even better, giving her a greater shot at winning. If the Academy goes hard for Wicked: For Good, she and Ariana Grande (in Best Supporting Actress) could both walk away as winners, even.

Emma Stone feels all but locked into a nomination for Bugonia too. She’s repeatedly found Oscar success with her collaborations with Yorgos Lanthimos, winning Best Actress for Poor Things and being nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Favourite. If she gives a greater performance here than in either of those, as some reviews suggest, a nomination is bound to happen.

After all, Stone is adored in Hollywood and has had plenty of success with the Academy overall. She previously won the category for La La Land, and her win for Poor Things surprised even her, as Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) was the presumed favorite. That track record puts her in a good position again.

Jessie Buckley is also in a strong position thanks to Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s movie is the Best Picture frontrunner, and her performance as William Shakespeare’s wife Agnes is a big reason why. Buckley is a previous Oscar nominee, too, thanks to The Lost Daughter three years ago, so voters are very familiar with her.

There is a good chance that Renate Reinsve makes it in for Sentimental Value, too. She dazzled audiences who saw it at Cannes, just as she did four years ago in Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World. That performance didn’t lead to Oscar recognition, but it feels like this one will.

There’s a strong level of support behind Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as well. She’s been mentioned as one of the best performances of the year ever since the film premiered at Sundance at the start of the year. Favor for her hasn’t wavered since then, as more and more people have seen it.

The odd thing is that even though there’s a limited number of people who have seen some of these performances, this quintet feels mostly secure in these spots. It’d be somewhat surprising if the race plays out exactly like this, as several other performances could gain steam as the season continues.

Actresses Still In The Mix

Academy voters will have multiple options to recognize actresses who are veterans of the industry or represent the new age. The latter could be how Sydney Sweeney enters the race for Christy or how Chase Infiniti gets in for One Battle After Another, if she doesn’t run in Supporting Actress, that is.

As for Sweeney, her boxing biopic has been met with mostly positive reviews, but even those who don’t love it — like ScreenRant‘s Rachel Labonte — can’t deny the strength of the transformative role she undertakes. She remains one of Hollywood’s biggest young stars, and it could make sense for the Academy to “anoint” her as such with a nomination.

Then there’s the group of previous Oscar winners hoping to gain more recognition. This includes Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Jodie Foster (A Private Life), and Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother).

Former nominees like Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) and Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) may also become bigger factors later on. There is some uncertainty with Hudson’s placement here, as Focus Features could campaign her in Best Supporting Actress instead.

Of those names, only Dern and Hudson have yet to have their performance praised through reviews, as neither film has screened so far, but that will change for both in the coming weeks. None of them come from movies that were met with universal acclaim, except for Seyfried, which could ultimately give her the edge if voters feel the same way.

As for those hoping for their first Oscar nomination, Lucy Liu (Rosemead), June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), and Emma Mackey (Ella McCay) are worth keeping in mind.

Chase Infiniti fits into this same class, unless Warner Bros. decides to try and slot her in Best Supporting Actress. With her co-stars Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor vying for spots there, the decision could shake up multiple categories.

Predicted Best Actress Winner

It’s far too early to declare any race in the Oscars over, but it does feel like Best Actress already has a clear frontrunner in Jessie Buckley. Hamnet might be a movie with William Shakespeare, but it’s more focused on Agnes’ perspective. Buckley gives an incredibly emotional performance in the film, based on early reactions, that left many viewers in tears.

That type of response is powerful when it comes to the Oscars. Connecting with voters’ hearts on such a deep level can make her performance unforgettable. That’s why she’s already seen as such a definitive choice to be nominated. And while the other contenders have room to overtake her, this feels like Buckley’s award to lose.

The actress has been on the ascent since her breakout role in 2018’s Wild Rose and has played central roles in a few movies the Oscars recognized since then: The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. As she prepares to take a big swing in 2026 with The Bride!, becoming an Academy Award winner for Hamnet could make next year an unforgettable one for her.

Any of the other four predicted nominees could still pull ahead of her in the months ahead, depending on how the entire season plays out. An argument could be made that she’s peaking too early. Then again, Hamnet​​​​​​’s wide release in November should spark another round of praise for her to propel her forward.

As of right now, Buckley is my pick for the Oscars 2026 Best Actress winner. Maybe that will change, but maybe it won’t, and she’ll steamroll her way towards the Academy Award.

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/