Hamnet, One Battle After Another Lead The Race

Awards season is upon us, and so it’s my pleasure to bring you ScreenRant‘s Best Picture predictions for the Oscars 2026. I’ve been handling these prediction pieces for the last few years, keeping a close eye on the state of the race, and that’s no different as we look for what Academy voters will deem the best movies of 2025.

For most of the year, Best Picture looked to be wide open, just waiting for a movie to burst onto the scene that could capture the attention of everyone. Sinners did that early in the year, provoking more conversations about how horror deserves to be more widely recognized by the Academy.

More recently, festival debuts for Hamnet and Sentimental Value put them more squarely in the race, as The Secret Agent and It Was Just An Accident jumped into the picture with their premieres. Yet, it’s been the debut of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another in theaters (after skipping the festival circuit) that has helped it steal all the attention.

We’ve still got a few months to go until the Academy officially announces the 10 movie lineup of Best Picture nominees on January 22, 2026. This is how I see things at this point, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Best Picture Nomination Frontrunners

Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection

Although many of these movies are still unseen by the majority of the population, the combination of titles already released in theaters, those screened at various festivals, and the belief in established filmmakers helps provide a guide and inform decisions. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Picture nominations prediction (in alphabetical order):

The safest of these predictions, those that are already likely locks for a nomination, are Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, and Sinners.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet became a Best Picture frontrunner after its premiere at Telluride and screening at TIFF, where it won the People’s Choice Award. The winner of that award has got a Best Picture nomination 22 times. Those nominations have resulted in six wins, including Zhao’s last film, Nomadland.

One Battle After Another has been met with rapturous applause now that it’s out in theaters. Critics and audiences are calling it a masterpiece, and the affection for it is certain to continue with Academy voters. It’s positioned as a major contender across the board, not just in Best Picture.

Sentimental Value left a huge impression on the Oscar race after its Cannes debut, winning the second most prestigious award, the Grand Prix. While not as big a precursor as the Palme d’Or, Joachim Trier’s new film is still well-positioned to surpass The Worst Person in the World‘s two nominations and factor into Best Picture.

There’s also no chance Sinners will be forgotten despite its release earlier in the year. Ryan Coogler has a strong history with the Academy after Black Panther. His period vampire film that digs into important themes and the influence of Black artists is destined to be widely recognized and give the ceremony one of 2025’s biggest films.

This gives Warner Bros. two of the biggest frontrunners in the category, which could help the studio cap off an incredible year critically and at the box office. But, Focus is also searching for its first Best Picture win, while Neon has proven to be a force in this race, winning twice recently for Parasite and Anora.

The latter’s momentum is one of many reasons why The Secret Agent looks likely to be nominated. It had a great response at Cannes, winning awards for Best Director and Best Actor, and that could carry the film toward a Best Picture nomination, among others.

Netflix is also sure to be in the mix here once again, as the streamer has racked up 10 nominations in the category over the years. A House of Dynamite is the most likely to get nominated, backed by strong reviews, Kathryn Bigelow’s tense direction, and a starry cast.

I’ve picked Jay Kelly to also be featured, given Noah Baumbach’s solid track record with the Academy and the star power attached, although I feel less confident that this will be the one to make it through. Another Netflix movie could emerge, or another non-streaming title can also take its place.

This leaves us with Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, and Wicked: For Good, which nobody has seen. There’s no buzz about them from first screenings, making these predictions more a vote of confidence in the films, directors, and the history with the Oscars.

After all, James Cameron’s first two Avatar movies earned Best Picture nominations, even if The Way of Water received fewer nominations overall. I’m not going to count on Hollywood suddenly turning its back on him and this franchise at this point. As long as the movie is another technological marvel, it should be in.

Similarly, Wicked: For Good feels assured to be in the lineup so long as the second part of the musical sticks the landing. Wicked was a phenomenon at last year’s ceremony, earning 10 nominations and winning two. The popularity and expected quality of the sequel makes it a comfortable prediction at this point.

Marty Supreme is positioned as A24’s big awards play for this Oscars season. Everything from its late release to its position in Timothée Chalamet’s quest for greatness adds to its Oscar potential. Being outside the festivals shouldn’t hurt a movie like this, which could be the last big title to enter the race, possibly shaking up everything upon its arrival.

Movies Still In The Mix

Those 10 movies are far from the only titles that are in contention for Best Picture. There is a wide pack of other films with varying levels of opportunities to enter the race and move up into the previous section, knocking others down to here.

Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia and Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein are two of the biggest omissions from my current predictions. Both directors have a great history with the Oscars, each having multiple Best Picture-nominated movies: The Favourite and Poor Things for Lanthimos; The Shape of Water (which won) and Nightmare Alley for del Toro.

I’m hesitant to include Frankenstein after its reception has been a bit cooler than expected for a passion project of this size. Bugonia has a widespread festival circuit to help build its case, but I can’t help but wonder if the absurdist sci-fi comedy will play more like Kinds of Kindness with Academy voters rather than being another Poor Things.

I’m also keeping a close eye on It Was Just An Accident, France’s selection for Best International Feature Film, which takes a critical look at Iran’s political repression. Neon acquired it after it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and Jafar Panahi’s film could really strike a chord with audiences as it becomes more widely accessible.

The latter would continue a strong international streak for Academy voters when selecting the Best Picture nominees. Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice and the Israel-Gaza story in The Voice of Hind Rajab could also gain momentum and reflect the increasing presence of international artists becoming Academy members.

Then there are more typical Hollywood productions with big stars that still have Oscar hopes. Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? starring Will Arnett, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, and Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere starring Jeremy Allen White need strong campaigns to become stronger competitors.

Additionally, late-year films in Song Sung Blue and Ella McCay that shouldn’t be forgotten about. Both could generate several acting nominations to bolster their Best Picture standing.

It’s also worth mentioning Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother. This was the Golden Lion winner at Venice. In the last decade, five of those winners got a Best Picture nomination, with two winning the Oscars’ top prize. There doesn’t seem to be any current momentum on Father Mother Sister Brother‘s side, but perhaps that could change.

All these movies are worth keeping in mind going forward. The same could even be true for Train Dreams, Nouvelle Vague, The Testament of Ann Lee, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Wake Up Dead Man, and Weapons. But, even if one of them becomes a bigger contender to earn a nomination, there will only be one winner.

Predicted Best Picture Winner

At this moment, Best Picture really feels like a two-horse race: Hamnet vs. One Battle After Another — with Sinners lurking as the stealth winner. Since I wasn’t at Telluride or TIFF, I haven’t seen Zhao’s loosely true story adaptation of William Shakespeare’s love life. But that’s not holding me back from picking it as the winner.

Hamnet feels like a more unconventional pick than it did two weeks ago, now that One Battle After Another has debuted. PTA’s movie is rightfully the talk of the movie industry, and it’s got a great opportunity to rack up double-digit nominations. Everything in this moment makes it feel like the movie of the year, with some even calling it the movie of the century.

That’s why it very well could be the Best Picture winner come March 15, 2026. But there was plenty of skepticism about One Battle After Another‘s standing ahead of its wide release. It’s only once it became widely seen that its contention solidified. But, the bigger swell of support for PTA’s film makes sense as of right now.

There’s a limited number of people, including critics and current Academy voters, who have seen Hamnet. There are only 46 reviews logged on Rotten Tomatoes right now. That’s well below One Battle After Another, which has 334 reviews. That has left Zhao’s movie feeling like it has lost ground to PTA’s, but the tides could change in November when the Shakespeare film opens wide.

Once Hamnet has the same exposure as One Battle After Another, I believe the movie will show everyone why it was heralded as a Best Picture frontrunner after Telluride and TIFF. Zhao’s direction, the stellar performances from the cast, and the technical aspects should all add to the film’s resume.

After all, the Academy has shown plenty of favor toward Zhao. Her last feature, Nomadland, also won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF before winning Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. Hamnet could follow a similar route this awards season.

This race is far from over, and there’s a chance Hamnet actually loses some steam once it opens wide. Considering the emotional responses elicited from the festival showings, Zhao’s intimate film should really connect with viewers and, more importantly, voters as its awards season campaign really kicks into high gear.

For that reason, I’m sticking with Hamnet as the predicted Best Picture winner for the Oscars 2026. But there’s plenty of time for minds to change, especially as the various precursors help shape the race.

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/